Saturday, October 03, 2009

Majority Yes Vote Is Likely Lisbon Treaty Result - Fine Gael Exit Poll

Ireland's second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty is set to see a majority for the Yes side, according to an exit poll carried out by the country's opposition party, Fine Gael.

A spokesperson for the party told EUobserver that the private poll had shown that around 60 percent of people voted in favour of the treaty, reports EUobserver). The exit poll is based on 1,000 voters from 33 locations around the country. With 80 percent of the exit poll votes counted, the result shows 60 percent in favour and 40 percent against, said the spokesperson late on Friday evening (2 October).

Billy Timmins, director of elections for the party said: "These are very encouraging numbers for the Yes side and it's a testament to all the hard work done by Fine Gael and all those on the Yes side." The final result of the referendum will be announced on Saturday afternoon with official counting to begin early in the morning.

State broadcaster RTE reported that early indications of voter turnout show that more people went to the polls than in June last year, when Irish voters rejected the treaty by 53.4 to 46.6 percent on a turnout of 53.1 percent.

A Yes result will be strongly welcomed by Prime Minister Brian Cowen. His unpopular government had struggled with the task of trying to sell the treaty to the 3 million-strong electorate even as it trailed in the polls. It will also be greeted with huge relief in Brussels, where EU officials have been waiting with high anticipation to see whether Ireland would join the 26 other member states who have completed parliamentary ratification of the treaty, or reject the document again, a move that would have resulted in the agreement being binned for good.

If the Yes vote is confirmed, the focus will immediately turn to Polish President Lech Kaczynski and Czech President Vaclav Klaus, whose signatures are needed to complete ratification in both countries. The Polish president has previously indicated that he would sign the treaty soon after a Yes vote in Ireland. But Mr Klaus has given little indication of when he would be prepared to take the same step, amid a fresh court challenge against the text. The treaty needs to be ratified in all 27 member states to come into force.